Around the 11 years that I have been publishing the martech landscape, as it mushroomed from ~150 answers to ~10,000, I’ve witnessed quite a few people respond to it as an anomaly. “What is it about internet marketing that spawns so quite a few computer software apps? Certainly no other career has to deal with these sprawl!”
To which program evaluation internet site G2 responds in this post, “Hold my beer.”
Even though there are surely dynamics certain to promoting that feed the frenzy of new martech startups, the truth of the matter is that martech is merely a portion of a considerably bigger computer software revolution. Marc Andreessen termed it “software having the environment.” I contact it The Wonderful App Explosion. Software program is everywhere (and, progressively, almost everything is software package).
But specifically how several commercially packaged computer software applications are there in The Wonderful App Explosion?
Let’s consider game titles and consumer-oriented apps off the desk. We know there are millions of this kind of apps for cellular devices on the Apple Application Retail outlet and Google Perform Shop. It’s fair to say that’s a distinct kettle of fish than B2B software program, these types of as martech.
Well, at minimum right now. Frankly, buyer and enterprise program apps are driven by a lot of the same fundamental technologies. And you see expanding cross-pollination amongst all those domains. The consumerization of IT continues to be a major motion underway. I individually see similarities in between creators on consumer platforms and “makers” inside organizations leveraging no-code applications. And if you feel the hoopla of the metaverse — which will a single day rise from the trough of disillusionment — the convergence of business and customer experiences will blur even more.
But for now, let’s stick to a slender interpretation of how a lot of company software program applications are there in the entire world?
The reply: at least 103,528.
That is the amount of software package solutions profiled on G2’s site as of very last week. It’s not a theoretical guesstimate. It’s an empirical depend — like the martech landscape, but spanning all organization software package types.
I emphasised the phrase “at least” in entrance of that selection for two reasons:
First, G2 acknowledges that they have not uncovered all of the business software applications out there however. My impression is that in particular in marketplaces exterior of North America, there’s a ton nonetheless to explore. Imagine of China and Japan, for instance.
2nd, new application startups hold remaining released. (You may possibly be mumbling below your breath, “Let’s see what the recent overall economy does to that merry-go-round.” Put a pin in that caveat for a moment – I’ll arrive back again to it.)
In other words, that 103,528 number is a decrease sure of the B2B application product or service universe. The true quantity is absolutely bigger, and possibly a lot larger. 150,000? 200,000? Additional?
G2’s database is unquestionably even now developing, introducing on normal 945 software merchandise for every month.
What about consolidation, you say? These quantities from G2 are inclusive of the truth that they’ve handled over 760 merger and acquisition instances due to the fact January of this 12 months. So, sure, consolidation is going on. But the paradox of simultaneous consolidation and enlargement in software program markets holds accurate. It’s not just martech.
Speaking of martech, the individuals at G2 also shared with me the counts of 9,365 martech products and 1,488 adtech items in their database. Mixed — which is how I have always thought of them — which is 10,853 madtech applications in full. Additional than what Frans and I came up with in our 2022 martech landscape launch in May.
Our prepare is to share data between us and G2 to get a superset of all of them. But it’s awesome to also have an unbiased corroboration that, sure, today’s martech landscape truly is on the magnitude of ~10,000 products.
Is 2023 the Year of the Martech Cataclysm?
But let’s get back again to that issue about the economic system I dodged previously.
No sugarcoating it. This next yr or two is likely to exert a ton of force on the latest martech landscape. Funding will be harder to appear by, and at substantially additional modest valuations. Advertising departments are heading to have tighter budgets and turn into much tougher shoppers when it arrives to considering and negotiating martech buys. This is the first time in about a 10 years of exponential martech development that the marketplace is going through a genuinely formidable economic natural environment.
Without doubt, this will end result in several much more acquisitions of scaled-down martech fish by even larger martech fish, as properly as the personal equity crowd betting on the other facet of this cycle. But a lot more painfully, there will be an raising number of early-stage martech ventures that only connect with it quits just after failing to possibly protected their subsequent funding spherical, uncover a ready acquisitor, or rebalance their functions to profitability.
My very best guess? Up to 20% of the existing martech landscape could churn just before 2024.
But it is only the churn fee of current martech distributors that I have a darkish prediction about. As much as collective business earnings goes, I believe that martech is heading to go on to grow for the foreseeable upcoming. Possibly not as speedy as it has been for the subsequent couple of a long time. But in the big picture, nonetheless really speedy. For a person simple explanation: the digital transformation of advertising and marketing is considerably from in excess of, and it remains one particular of the greatest levers every single company on the earth has for successful and retaining buyers.
Primarily in the hard times ahead, fantastic martech will be important to
survival good results.
Ignore valuations for now, which have been the semi-delusional yardstick of measuring martech ventures these earlier handful of a long time. Income is the ground reality of sizing an market. And I’m 99.9% certain martech revenue will develop calendar year-above-12 months for the rest of this ten years.
And to repeat the mantra of this article: it is not just martech. The total program market has enormous growth in advance of it. The inspiring chart previously mentioned from Battery Ventures (with my two annotations in orange) is equally an correct glance-back at computer software profits progress about the previous 5 a long time, but also a quite conservative extrapolation of common compound annual progress of application revenue for the up coming two a long time.
Two matters pop out promptly from that chart:
First, holy cats, the measurement of what the software program sector is very likely to mature to by 2050 dwarfs in which we are right now. “Software ingesting the world” is computer software using more than much more and much more of each aspect of the financial state. Around the globe GDP in 2020 was ~$85 trillion. By 2050, it’s envisioned to be ~$165 trillion. It is in fact not that mad to consider of computer software creating up a mere $6 trillion of that, or ~3.6% of total GDP.
Second, the Dot-Com Bubble Burst in 2000 and The Fantastic Recession in 2008 scarcely register as small dents in the upward slope of this mountain. That’s not to trivialize the challenges so many confronted in individuals yrs. But placing those hurdles in point of view of the very long recreation, the overall trajectory of the application industry has not been derailed by the ups-and-downs of macroeconomic small business cycles. I think that is going to keep on being correct for this technology and possibly the upcoming.
All of which sales opportunities me to conclude that The Fantastic Application Explosion will carry on by means of these subsequent couple of a long time. And on the following wave of restoration and expansion, the expansion in new software applications may well extremely very well strike
light-weight velocity ludicrous velocity.